One of Bloomberg’s top analysts has sounded the alarm about Bitcoin’s unusual bull run, suggesting it may no longer be sustainable.
Mike McGlone has long been one of the most bullish voices in the cryptocurrency space, confidently predicting that the price of BTC will reach $100,000 in a few years.
He correctly notes that Donald Trump played a significant role in pushing the world’s largest cryptocurrency into six figures — not least because he adopted many pro-Bitcoin policies during his campaign.
But when examining Bitcoin’s performance over the past 12 months relative to other asset classes, he came to a troubling conclusion: gold’s returns were far superior. McGlone wrote:
“Since December 6, Bitcoin has risen about 10%, while gold has risen 28% and the S&P 500 has risen 7%. Cryptocurrency, born during the financial crisis, has led an unprecedented outperformance of US risk assets and may now be reaching a turning point.”
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist believes we may be reaching “peak bubble” — drawing stark comparisons to the Great Depression of 1929 or the stock market crash that rocked Japan’s economy in 1989.
That said, some Bitcoin enthusiasts may be dissatisfied with McGlone’s analysis. In a recent research report seen by Cryptonews , he pointed out that BTC currently has more than 20 million competitors in the cryptocurrency space. Maxis would not hesitate to refute this, stating that altcoins are completely incomparable to BTC.
Still, there are other data points that are cause for concern — including the fact that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has been near all-time highs over the past 48 months. Furthermore, McGlone noted that the chart shows that the S&P 500’s total return has only been negative twice since 2008, suggesting a potential high level of complacency among traders.
“The ratio of benchmark digital asset Bitcoin to store-of-value gold, which has been a leading indicator, will lag in 2025. Is this a sign of an overdue return to risk assets?”
McGlone reads between the lines and draws a stark conclusion: the performance of the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year could dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory and determine whether the current bull market persists.
Our view is that the S&P 500 must maintain its upward trajectory or risk being at risk. A decline in beta this year would be contrary to consensus expectations and could trigger the next massive trade in favor of US Treasuries against the backdrop of record gold prices.
So… what are analysts currently thinking about the flagship index’s performance? Well, there’s certainly some optimism surrounding the final four months of 2025. With the vast majority of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations in their August earnings conference calls, institutions like UBS have already raised their year-end targets to 6,600. Other banks have followed suit—no doubt buoyed by the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
McGlone also issued a warning about Strategy — he believes that if the highly leveraged company’s stock price continues to fall, “the cryptocurrency dominoes may fall.”
Shares of the software company — currently the world’s largest Bitcoin holder — have fallen to their largest discount to its 200-day moving average since 2023. Is this another opportunity to buy the dip? It better be, but otherwise, here’s how we see it.
The analyst also believes that Bitcoin is “very likely” to revisit the $100,000 support level soon – meaning it will fall 20% from its all-time high. All traditional definitions point to a bear market at this stage, but BTC has a track record of rebounding from such unsettling pullbacks.
You could say McGlone is a bit of an outlier in this regard. Many other analysts remain cautiously optimistic that Bitcoin still has room to run higher — with some predicting it will top around $180,000 later this year.
But with uncertainty surrounding the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policy, a 62% increase from current levels is far from guaranteed.
Polymarket gamblers, who previously said they believed Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in 2025, are adjusting their betting strategies. Currently, only 59% believe Bitcoin will surpass $130,000 by the end of the year, compared to nearly 85% two weeks ago. Whatever happens before the New Year, one thing is certain: there will be winners and losers.
